Some more info on the breakdown of Dutch cabinet

Dear reader,

as so many times before, the eurozone creates its dramas sometimes as unpredictable as the announcement of a 'Greek referendum' last year by then Greek PM Papadreou.

Now the events were/are dictated by well known Dutch politician Geert Wilders, chairman and establisher of Dutch PVV party. PVV can be translated as 'party for freedom'  .

The party and the politician well known of course for its rather radical positions towards Muslims, Islam, Koran, immigrants in general. (latest controversy: Internet website to name & shame all possibly negative behavior of Eastern European citizens like Poles, Bulgarians etc)  
Less well known is the PVV's somewhat 'leftist' approach concerning pensioners and the Dutch welfare state. Nevertheless Mr Wilders was before his 'career' as party leader of the PVV, member of parliament for the VVD .

This explains perhaps why Mr Rutte as designated PM back in 2010 decided to try a regular coalition with the CDA and get both parties 'tolerated' by Mr Wilders and his parliamentary group. Some items on the political agenda by Mr Rutte was against the interests of PVV and so he and the CDA party had to rely on some opposition parties sometimes for a majority needed for getting legislation through parliament. So, in fact Dutch government was a minority government all along, depending for most but not all projects on Mr Wilders and his group.

Mr Wilders political style aroused some controversy in Dutch society (in Brussels and abroad in general), by using provocations in order to get more support from certain groups of the Dutch population. He got it mostly right, looking back at the opinion polls being done shortly afterwards where he and his group did rise regularly after such provocations. At some time the PVV seemed to be the leading party of the Netherlands, but latest opinion polls show that many of his followers changed their minds again, some of them would vote for VVD now. So Mr Wilders was facing decline in opinion polls, but more troubling for him was a defection of one prominent member of his parliamentary group, Mr Brinkman. Hero Brinkman recently put an ultimatum to Mr Wilders, who , so he alleged, was running the party like a dictator, not interested in democratic principles. Mr Brinkman was coincidentally the one vote needed for the government of Mr Rutte to have a (small) majority in parliament. The timing for defection and establishing a faction of his own by Mr Brinkman couldn't have been chosen better: in the middle of the long lasting negotiations in the 'Catshuis' between all three parties in order to reach an agreement on strict austerity measures needed to put the Netherlands back on track concerning eurozone's deficit target of 3%. (Which was forecasted by CPB more in the direction of 4,6%)   



So Hero Brinkman was one big problem for Mr Wilders, who lost both face and the strength needed to give the cabinet the majority needed to get intended  legislation proposals trough parliamant. The other problem was declining backing by Dutch voters as shown in the opinion polls, and the last nail in the coffin was a development on Friday April 20th, when regional government of province Limburg (happens to be home region of Mr Wilders) led by CDA was announcing to cut short the existing cooperation with PVV and so forcing them into opposition. Some political analysts in the Netherlands even suspect further defections within the PVV party, after some turmoil and people turning their back to the party on some local levels earlier this year. So the next couple of days will show if their analysis is correct and Mr Wilders is facing more defections, a complete breakup of his party or an internal power struggle for leadership after he fails to be a somewhat unofficial member of the cabinet.

However many, if not all, commentators agree on the view that Mr Wilders was already getting many concessions he and his party and his supporters wanted during the 'silent talks' in the Catshuis, and some spectators already thought they would see some 'white smoke' coming out of this building. Not for having a new pope of course, but to have an agreement, after the latest calculations of the CPB reached the building Friday afternoon. The days after the defection of Mr Brinkman had PM Rutte make some offers to small SGP party, although no official statements were issued. In fact it is only clear that journalists waiting in front of the 'Catshuis' compound have seen its leader and Mr Rutte sitting side by side in a car. 

All political analysts, the author here so far heard, were also agreeing on the estimation that Mr Wilders was incredibly daft to suddenly walk out of the 'Catshuis' , not only after 7 weeks of negotiations (wasted time), but more importantly because he had held a power base in Dutch government. Although not officially a member of cabinet, but in a very powerful position to 'dictate' the agenda by providing the majority needed in parliament. That influential position is lost, and there are many doubts, if Mr Wilders will convince his constituency to vote for him once again or for the first time. At least latest opinion polls before this 'walkout' showed the opposite. Mr Wilders was not only very publicly blamed for the failure by Mr Rutte (VVD) and even more so by Mr Verhagen (CDA) , but many economists also are forecasting negative consequences for the future, once this important deal on austerity & reform measures is off the table for now and possibly for ever.

The joint statements given by Mr Rutte and Mr Verhagen however were much more convincing than the blame towards 'the dictate of Brussels' given by Mr Wilders at the same time, but on a different location. (Also somewhat chaotic)
There was a 'pause' in 'Catshuis'-negotiations some 3 weeks before where already Mr Wilders walked out for a day and he was blamed for the possible failure. Now it remains to be seen, if and how he can sell his 2nd and final walkout. He claimed to have battled against future strains on pensioners income, but economists looking into the actual figures delivered by the CPB are telling the public another story.

What's next remains a bit unclear. Mr Rutte will inform the Queen on Monday April 23rd and most certainly discuss with her some formalities needed to dissolve parliament and set a date for new elections. Leading members of the opposition said yesterday (Apr 21st) evening on TV that they are willing to cooperate with VVD & CDA before that date in order to reach some agreement on a temporary budget for 2013. Mr Rutte and even more Mr Verhagen were very annoyed by Mr Wilders quitting, even more so as they had to convince their backbenchers in 2010 to form a cabinet dependent on Mr Wilders. So neither those two parties nor the opposition parties want to cooperate with the PVV. At least Mr Samson, new party leader of PvdA said so yesterday on TV.

And Mr Wilders spoiled Mr Rutte's field day (Friday) of being the first Dutch PM to appear in 'Donald Duck' ;-)

note: There might be some updates during the next couple of days 

Update Apr 22nd 11:15 CET
According to this article the assumption that there was 'more' going on within the PVV party/faction seems to get supported. At least 5 of their MPs threatened to leave on Friday upon the to be expected 'Catshuis' agreement.
 
 

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