Dear reader,
it was never intended to get into one countries' politics, and especially not of The Netherlands, the country where the author has the privilege to vote more often than he would like to. (because most recent cabinets didn't last until the end of their legislature) Although he was bored more or less with politics of the small Netherlands and he very closely followed those other political events taking place in UK, Germany, USA , Russia and others with some more degree of 'aw', it seemed necessary to give some perspective of Dutch politics after Mr Wilders made his move, the budget negotiations failed, the cabinet fell and new elections were pronounced. So suddenly there was the Netherlands in the focus of world's attention and so it was decided to help understand a bit more what was happening in the low lands with their windmills and wooden shoes.
Even when restricting on the economy of the EU and the eurozone it wasn't possible not to give some background on the political situation in the Netherlands, since there was the all important budget 2013 on the brink of not being agreed upon, and therefore both the international markets and the other members of the eurozone, and the EU as a whole started to get nervous about this (maybe later seen as historic) failure of the last coalition to get things done.
It also seemed important to counter those reports of the foreign financial press, that gave inaccurate information on the situation (even on the very day where a breakthrough was announced !) and therefore had the potential of misinforming the markets with all the negative effects of it. The author here is fully aware that he cannot reach the massive readership that this well known European financial newspaper has the privilege to reach, but at least a few can spread the word that not all what is being assumed instead of being known is actually true and happening on the 'Dutch ground'.
One important misunderstanding of some elements of the foreign press was the determination of many political parties in parliament to play a constructive role in an agreement upon the future budget as well as to be a possible coalition partner after the elections to be held on September 12th this year. Already during the ongoing talks in 'Catshuis' Mr Pechtold e.g. told on Dutch public TV programs that he would rather like to offer Mr Rutte and his rump cabinet of VVD & CDA his party's assistance than to plea for new elections, if Mr Wilders 'pulls the plug' out of the current coalition. (There was a serious crisis during this 'Catshuis' talks before, some 3 weeks before they finally stopped)
To understand this eagerness of playing an active role in political decisions it helps to know that former coalitions were a lot less ideologically charged than those of e.g. Germany where coalitions are still formed along 'camps' of some ideological alignment. Except the two times so far where there was a coalition of CDU & SPD. In the Netherlands where there is more as one party in the center: The VVD, traditionally the right liberal party with very close support of SME & industry alike, hence very loyal to economy and its needs. Then there is D'66 that covers the liberal left with emphasis on individuals democratic rights, civil liberties and human rights, until recently only very small in actual seats in parliament but heavily gaining throughout the last couple of years.
It wouldn't be exaggerated to say both center parties swallowed up large chunks of electorate from the political right and left.
So although VVD was being a part of CDA led cabinets it also was participating in cabinets under PvdA (Labor), times changed, and now those formerly biggest and most important parties from the right and left once entitled to have the prime minister from their ranks, have lost much of their former strength and therefore importance. So Mr Rutte is the person marking one important shift in Dutch politics gaining the post as prime minister while being the chairman of the largest group in parliament nowadays. So VVD changed its role as 'junior partner' with CDA (you might remember PM Balkenende or PM Lubbers) and if their would be another 'purple' coalition (expression for center/left under PM Kok) it would most likely force the PvdA into such a position. If both strong center parties (VVD,D'66) would consider a coalition again it would be most definitely more liberal and less conservative or socialist than ever before.
It is probably too early to pronounce CDA and PvdA 'junior partners' of future cabinets already, but latest opinion polls delivered as usual by famous Mr Maurice de Hond (@mauricedehond) compiled after recent week with some turbulences, showing basically that voters applaud those parties which achieved a 'Blitz agreement', and they reject those parties left out of the deal for whatever reasons. Although all three major parties left out of the recent five party 'coalition', PVV (Wilders) , PvdA (Samson) and SP (Roemer) are taking a hit, especially the PvdA takes the heat for not taking part in those rapid and very important negotiations. Not only from many (if not all) commentators of the press and those five parties who made this audacious deal (what else to expect from political opponents), but most important from many party members of the PvdA and their traditional voters ! Recent opinion polls show 65% would have liked the PvdA a part of this fiscal agreement and 49% even of the opinion that Mr Samson made a mistake by not joining those talks.
The public discussions about the missed chances of Mr Samson and his PvdA is already gaining momentum as many features on radio and TV are about the divisions in the PvdA, of whether or not to stand by the new party leader or to not support him. Already PvdA party was put into one political corner with other 'outsiders' , SP (socialist party) and of course PVV who takes the full brunt of blame of failed budget negotiations and failed cabinet alike. Some prominent active and retired PvdA politicians expressed their unease about being in unwanted company by SP and even more by much despised PVV. They also criticized that M Samson missed the opportunity to get at least as many concessions as the other 3 parties got from CDA and VVD in return for saving both Mr de Jager's face and the Netherlands from at least higher borrowing costs and even a potential downgrade of its current supreme credit rating of 'AAA'. They also point out, that by declining to take part in those negotiations he (Samson) did not act in a constructive way and could have proved to the public that the PvdA contrary to the SP was a party taking its responsibility for the country as a whole seriously. This could have been a major point in the election battle in order to be distinguishable from the agenda of the SP. And by doing so the PvdA could have also distanced itself from the 'anti-Euro' , 'anti-EU' (war)path the PVV is on. So it was said by e.g. a former cabinet minister of the PvdA during a debate (Buitenhof) on Dutch public TV. Those critical voices also would have liked more outspoken support for the European idea the PvdA was traditionally known for by Mr Samson.
To be honest to the readership, Mr Samson may have his own reasons for steering his party more to the left , away from the center, because he was voted into position as party leader after Mr Cohen failed to prevent more and more traditional PvdA voters to vote for SP instead of PvdA and also the previous party leader before Mr Cohen took his post, former FinMin Wouter Bos, failed to gain more support for the PvdA already back then, or at least stop the erosion of social democracy in the Netherlands. Mr Bos was replaced back then, when the CDA led cabinet of Mr Balkenende (IV) fell and it seemed to be a good idea to have the very well respected, good mannered and very fair and intellectual Mr Cohen, mayor of Amsterdam to lead the party in the same way as he was successfully leading the city of Amsterdam for many years, and by doing so gaining respect and admiration for it, far beyond the city limits of the capital city. Unfortunately for the PvdA, Mr Cohen wasn't the aggressive campaigner the party needed to mobilize its traditional electorate. So there power base eroded further and their electorate choose instead the more radical socialists of the SP.
Another development was perhaps to much for the fresh new party leader of the PvdA, which is that he possibly did not expect that Mrs Sap of the Green-left party has chosen to switch from the 'socialist camp' to the other side, and by doing so leaving moderate and ultra socialists suddenly isolated. She was attacked harshly during a debate in parliament on Thursday by Labor and SP.
However she did make it clear, that PvdA wasn't well advised not to be to close to the SP. Nevertheless she didn't rule out future cooperation with Labor. Even made it clear that she would prefer a cabinet to be as progressive as possible. She and also Mr Slob of Christian Union party would have preferred that Labor had voted in favor of the budget package.
Latest opinion polls confirm that trend, where PvdA loses again some 6 seats compared to a week before and 11 seats compared to actual size in today's parliament. SP and VVD are now both equally strong and leading with 31 (virtual) seats. Assuming that those current strengths could be maintained until September 12th it could also mean that SP could form an ultra left cabinet, provided that other parties would be willing to serve as 'junior partners' under an ultra-socialist premier. Mr Rutte however could form a cabinet with current partners who agreed to that rapid budget agreement, although its majority is slim, it is sufficient.
Such narrow majorities of a government consisting of even more than 3 parties could of course have the inherent danger of falling apart, once only 1-2 backbenchers of whatever party involved in this coalition quits ranks. The chairman of the VNO-NCW, Mr Wientjes, therefore pleads for a minimum threshold of 5% of the votes in order to be able to enter parliament.
"Almost all countries have introduced this obstacle, but the Netherlands hasn't. This very moment it makes no sense to do it, because we cannot make it before the next coming elections. But the threshold helps nevertheless to prevent that all small parties will fracture the (political) landscape", explains Wientjes.
During the lengthy 'Catshuis'-negotiations there were even calls for a cabinet of technocrats instead of elected politicians in order to get things done. Mr Wientjes won't go so far to call for such a measure, especially since 5 parties put the interests of the country before there own.
Immediately after the five parties got their act together they also started their campaign. So it was reported that flyers have been distributed in Amsterdam and Mr Kees Verhoeven was glad to tell his Twitter audience that during first campaigning events on the streets of some Dutch towns people gave him and his party a very positive feedback because of their decision to join the other four parties for the important budget agreement. The other reason for joy across the political spectrum is that Mr Wilders lost his influence upon Dutch government. Miraculously Mr Rutte wasn't blamed so far for putting him (Wilders) in this position in the first place and almost risked a major political but also financial crisis. If this current rather enthusiastic sentiment can be sustained until election day remains the question. The author here doesn't want to spoil the positive mood, after the so called 'Kunduz' coalition (5 parties) achieved in just two days what VVD,CDA and PVV took seven weeks, but Dutch voters have proven to be very volatile in their voting habits. And there will be even more choices next time, because as reported before, Mr Brinkman not only left PVV, but also established his new party: the independent citizens party (OBP) as he announced last Tuesday on TV . So if he can gain some support for his party, Mr Wilders will have even harder times to hold his ranks together.
During some queries the author came across this article by a Belgian newspaper, which also sums it all up pretty well. A special salute goes out to Mr Groenhuijsen, former reporter in Washington for NOS TV, who wrote this article, which contains a lot of fun. (besides insights of course)
So we all are looking forward to use those old fashioned pencils again to cast our votes, since according to media reports, more secure ballot machines won't be available in time. The author will keep you informed if major shifts in Dutch politics will happen until that day.
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